We edge inside the two-month mark to the GI Kentucky Derby with a well-bunched Top 12 hurtling toward more lucrative qualifying points races at longer distances.
1) PALADIN (c, Gun Runner–Secret Sigh, by Tapit) O-Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter M. Brant, Brook T. Smith, and Summer Wind Equine, LLC; B-Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY); T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $1,900,000 Ylg '24 FTSAUG. Lifetime record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $848,250. Last start: WON Feb. 14 GII Risen Star Stakes.
The 3-for-3 Paladin has racked up two wins in nine-furlong stakes after getting elevated from second to first via disqualification in his career debut last October.
This $1.9 million FTSAUG son of Gun Runner from Chad Brown's barn has been favored in every start, and now sports a Beyer Speed Figure arc of 87-85-93, which suggests measured progression with room for improvement.
Paladin will have one additional prep (likely the Apr. 4 GI Toyota Blue Grass Stakes) prior to attempting 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.
In his first sophomore start Feb. 14 in the GII Risen Star Stakes, Paladin broke alertly and settled willingly between horses into the first turn. He was fourth, about four lengths off the 7-1 breakaway pacemaker Chip Honcho (Connect) in the early part of the backstretch run, then was switched outside in the eight-horse field and incrementally edged up to attain second through opening quarter-mile splits of :23.81, :23.68 and :24.04.
By the far turn Paladin looked certain to seize the lead. But jockey Tyler Gaffalione ended up getting more of a fight than expected from the staying-on Chip Honcho, who was perhaps aided by a Fair Grounds main track that had been slightly favoring speed (five of seven dirt races that afternoon won by horses either on the lead or dueling for it).
Gaffalione roused Paladin with both left- and right-handed stick work off the bend, and although the colt did not uncork one big, blast-off move through the extended Fair Grounds home straight, Paladin finished with locked-in purpose through a fourth-quarter split of :24.84 and a last furlong in :12.77 for a final clocking of 1:49.14.
Paladin's churn-and-grind stretch run was similar to how he polished off the No. 4-ranked Renegade (Into Mischief) in the Dec. 6 GII Remsen Stakes.
But a subtle visual difference was that in the Remsen, Flavien Prat had to start scrubbing on Paladin 2 1/2 furlongs from the wire, while in the Risen Star, a more assertive Paladin was carrying Gaffalione along at a comfortable clip before being set down for the drive.
The bet here is that Paladin will continue to build upon this foundation of steady, no-nonsense power. We will likely see other Derby contenders emerge whose styles tilt more toward “flash and panache.” But Paladin, despite a limited number of starts, already rates an edge in reliability and consistency.
2) COMMANDMENT (c, Into Mischief–Sippican Harbor, by Orb) O-Wathnan Racing; B-Lee Pokoik (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $485,000 RNA Wlg '23 FTKNOV; $475,000 RNA Ylg '24 FTSAUG; $500,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GSW, 4-3-0-0, $403,539. Last start: WON Feb. 28 GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Commandment boosted his lifetime record to 3-for-4 with his 101-Beyer victory by a neck in last Saturday's GII Fountain of Youth Stakes.
More important than his winning margin and speed number is the “how he did it” factor.
This son of Into Mischief ($485,000 RNA FTKNOV; $475,000 RNA FTSAUG; $500,000 KEESEP) has now put together a string of races in which he has shown he can settle into a comfortable rhythm, even when covered up at the inside, then find a seam and bull on through to the front to finish strongly while still maintaining a measured cadence.
Prior to winning the Fountain of Youth, Commandment took the Jan. 3. one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes under confident handling, and also won a seven-furlong MSW at Churchill Downs, opening up late by 5 1/2 lengths. His only defeat was in his career debut, when he rallied from 11th to get fourth going six furlongs at Keeneland.
His Beyer progression now stands at 82-81-91-101.
Commandment's work wasn't done after the field hit the finish line in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth. Gulfstream utilizes a short-stretch configuration with the wire at the sixteenth pole for main-track races at that distance, and jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. asked the 2.4-1 favorite to gallop out with good energy to the second finish line, which will be Commandment's target in his expected next start in the Mar. 29 GI Curlin Florida Derby.
“I think it was important that Irad asked him to run to the second wire there for the experience moving forward,” trainer Brad Cox said the day after the win. “If we pursue the Florida Derby, it makes sense to continue on to the second wire. You're only doing it if everything's going well. If you're fading or not doing well down the lane, you don't ask him. But if you have horse and you're finishing well, you may as well go ahead and educate him, stay on and finish up.”
Commandment | Lauren King
3) NEARLY (c, Not This Time–Ib Prospecting, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Wind Hill Farm (FL); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GSW, 4-3-0-0, $249,900. Last start: WON Jan. 31 GIII Holy Bull Stakes.
This $350,0000 KEESEP colt from Todd Pletcher's stable will attempt to pair a victory in the Jan. 31 GIII Holy Bull Stakes with a decent showing in the Florida Derby prior to attempting the Kentucky Derby.
Nearly has been proficient as a speedster/stalker who can apply/take heat right up close to the pace.
This son of Not This Time has now won three straight at Gulfstream by a combined 20 lengths, and Nearly is riding an upward wave of Beyer figures (49-82-97-98) that suggests a breakthrough into triple digits could be within his grasp.
But it's also legit to question whether Nearly's dominance in those three Gulfstream starts was a product of him clearly relishing a strip that often rewards forwardly placed horses while being matched against competition that has since had trouble finding the winner's circle.
The horses Nearly blew away in his maiden, allowance and stakes scores at Gulfstream have collectively posted a 1-for-9 next-race record.
Then again, Nearly did accrue style points and valuable experience in the Holy Bull. Even though he was an aggressor in what seemed like a too-fast-to-last pace, he stuck around admirably to finish with gusto.
As the second betting choice in the Holy Bull, Nearly dueled the favorite into defeat but still had enough energy left to repulse a challenge from the only rival close enough to try to reel him in, widening his winning margin to 5 3/4 lengths over the short-stretch configuration.
4) RENEGADE (c, Into Mischief–Spice Is Nice, by Curlin) O-Robert Low, Lawana L. Low, and Repole Stable; B-Robert Low & Lawana Low (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $975,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GSW, 4-1-2-1, $199,000. Last start: WON Feb. 7 GII Sam F. Davis Stakes.
Renegade's three starts at age two established that he could perform well against high-level competition in New York. His much-the-best, maiden-breaking score in the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs (92 Beyer) indicated his form has remained sharp in the two-month interim since his last start.
The big question, though, as this $975,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief prepares for a probable start in the Mar. 28 GI Arkansas Derby, is whether or not that 3 3/4-length romp in the Davis was as dominant as it appeared visually.
There were no other Top 12-ranked horses in that Feb. 7 Tampa stakes, and none of the also-rans who straggled home behind Renegade appears to be Triple Crown-level contenders.
Irad Ortiz, Jr. kept Renegade patiently parked in next-to-last position in that nine-horse race before letting the colt loop the field five deep through the far turn. Renegade rolled to the lead without encountering serious competition, and he extended his margin while drifting out under left-handed whipping. The 48-1 pacemaker who had led for most of the race stayed on for second with no fresh closers able to gain on him.
In his Aug. 16 sprint debut, Renegade was third behind a 17 3/4-length winner at Saratoga. He then finished a head better than No. 1-ranked Paladin, but was disqualified for stretch interference in a one-turn-mile MSW race at Aqueduct Oct. 16. Renegade then was second, beaten two lengths by Paladin in the Remsen Stakes.
5) DESERT GATE (c, Omaha Beach–Theogony, by Curlin) O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Twin Oaks Bloodstock (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $125,000 Wlg '23 KEENOV; $100,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP; $260,000 2yo '25 OBSMAR. Lifetime record: GSW, 5-2-2-0, $252,000. Last start: 4th Feb. 7 GII Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
Desert Gate, formerly No. 1 in last month's installment of these rankings, fell from his lofty perch after an uninspiring fourth as the 6-5 favorite in the Feb. 7 GIII Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
Although disappointing, that loss has a “too bad to be true” ring to it. It was not indicative of this colt's true ability, and thus not enough to get this son of Omaha Beach completely voted off the Top 12 island.
“Desert Gate missed the break, and I knew the one hole would hurt us,” trainer Bob Baffert said in the aftermath of the colt's first start since being sidelined with a hock infection that kept him out of the Breeders' Cup. “I knew we were in trouble then because he is so one-dimensional.”
Desert Gate, who does his best running when forwardly placed, got relegated to last in the one-mile, seven-horse Lewis. He advanced to fourth along the inside for the backstretch run, came under a vigorous ride on the far turn without much response, then was laboring late when nailed for the show position by a nose.
This colt (125,000 KEENOV; $100,000 KEESEP; $260,000 OBSMAR) returned to the work tab with a five-eighths move at Santa Anita last Friday.
The race that stands out in Desert Gate's five-race past-performance block is the Oct. 4 GI American Pharoah Stakes, in which he led from the start as the 9-10 favorite, took mild pressure from the second fave, came back on that rival when headed, repulsed a stretch bid from a new foe, then got nailed at the wire by 'TDN Rising Star presented by Hagyard' Intrepido (Maximus Mischief), losing by only three-quarters of a length.
6) CHIEF WALLABEE (c, Constitution–A La Lucie, by Medaglia d'Oro) 'TDN Rising Star presented by Hagyard'. O/B-Mike Ball & Katherine Ball (KY); T-William I. Mott. Lifetime record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $117,600. Last start: 2nd Feb. 28 GII Fountain of Youth Stakes.
This homebred son of Constitution from Bill Mott's stable is light on experience but high on potential after just missing behind Commandment in last weekend's Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Both those colts rallied from mid-pack, but while Commandment saved ground and shot on through the inside, Chief Wallabee took the overland route.
“I had to make a little premature move just to get my position forward since it's the first wire with a horse going that far for the first time,” said jockey Junior Alvarado. “I hesitated a little to make that move but I had no choice.
“Then I saw [Commandment] coming through at the three-eighths pole and I had to make a premature move once again. I have to say it might have cost me the race, but this is something we're building on for next time. I doubt if those horses will beat me again,” Alvarado said.
Chief Wallabee had broken his maiden sprinting seven furlongs at Gulfstream Jan. 10 and was taking a sizable upward step in class by trying winners and two turns for the first time in a graded stakes.
Mott has yet to commit to a next start. If Chief Wallabee runs big and earns qualifying points in a nine-furlong prep, he faces the prospect of starting in the Derby off just three career races.
Since 1900, 29 horses have started in the Derby with exactly three lifetime starts. Only four have won: Regret in 1915, Big Brown in 2008, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. Of the remaining 25, only one finished better than seventh: Curlin, who was third in 2007.
Chief Wallabee | Ryan Thompson
7) SILENT TACTIC (c, Tacitus–Magical Sign, by Gun Runner) O-John C. Oxley; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Mark E. Casse. Sales history: $60,000 Ylg '24 FTKOCT; $500,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR. Lifetime record: GSW, 5-2-3-0, $774,422. Last start: 2nd Mar. 1 GII Rebel Stakes.
With a 12-1 win in the GIII Southwest Stakes and three second-place tries in other stakes, this Mark Casse-trained son of Tacitus is still a bit of an under-the-radar Kentucky Derby threat.
Silent Tactic ($60,000 FTKOCT; $500,000 OBSAPR) has never gone off favored in any of his five starts, but he consistently gains ground in the late stages of his races and has the makings of a punches-above-his-weight type of colt.
In the Mar. 1 Rebel, Silent Tactic was one of only two runners who opted out of the seven-horse scramble for the lead into the first turn. Cristian Torres settled him at the fence, and Silent Tactic was always responsive to subtle cues to quicken.
Threading through from the back of the pack, Silent Tactic attained a more prominent position at the head of the lane, but Torres had to keep him “on hold” for a few strides behind a wall of frontrunners before committing to a four-wide sweep under a full head of steam.
His running line in the chart doesn't reflect it, but Silent Tactic hit the front briefly several times in the final furlong before Class President (Uncle Mo) reclaimed the lead to win by a nose.
Both colts were credited with 91 Beyers for their efforts, with the rest of the fragmented field 5 1/4 lengths behind in their wake.
8) LITMUS TEST (c, Nyquist–Study Hard, by Malibu Moon) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Bashor, Dianne, Determined Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Donovan, Catherine; B-Machmer Hall (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $875,000 Ylg '24 FTSAUG. Lifetime record: GSW, 6-2-0-2, $440,188. Last start: 3rd Mar. 1 GII Rebel Stakes.
Similar to the writeup about Desert Gate several spots above, Litmus Test is another Bob Baffert trainee who didn't fire his best shot in his sophomore debut.
But are you really going to drop this colt from Kentucky Derby consideration off that subpar third in the Rebel Stakes given that Baffert's horses have crossed the finish wire first in the Derby on a record seven occasions (with one DQ), and knowing that not all of those colts who wore a blanket of roses for Baffert on the first Saturday in May were ready for prime time in early March?
With five lifetime races at age two, including three at two turns and two in Grade I stakes, Litmus Test already has built a broader foundational base than many of his Top 12 counterparts will bring into the May 2 Derby.
This $875,000 FTSAUG colt by 2016 Kentucky Derby champ Nyquist looked out of his element leading the field under pace pressure at Oaklawn from post one, establishing opening quarter-mile splits of :23.06 and :23.56.
By contrast, Litmus Test had looked more comfortable reeling in a target when winning the GII Los Alamitos Futurity in his previous start Dec. 13.
“I talked to [Flavien] Prat and he basically said that he was in the one hole [with] a big horse, and he [thought he] could probably get him going,” Baffert said. “He's never trained like that. He's a one-run kind of horse. He had to be farther back and make one run. He didn't get tired. He was just sort of one-paced, but you learn about these horses. Those were nice horses that beat him.”
9) IRON HONOR (c, Nyquist–Orenica, by Blame) O-St. Elias Stable, William H. Lawrence & Glassman Racing; B-Mike & Pat Freeny; T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $230,000 Ylg '24 KEEJAN; $475,000 Ylg KEESEP. Lifetime record GSW, 2-2-0-0, $211,750. Last start: WON Feb. 28 GIII Gotham Stakes.
Favored at 0.94-1 in his second career start, Iron Honor pressured a 9-1 pacemaker every step of the trip in last Saturday's GIII Gotham Stakes. The top two peeled off from the pack by open lengths and this Nyquist colt then wrested control in the final sixteenth of the one-turn mile for a 90-Beyer win by one length.
This Chad Brown trainee ($230,000 KEEJAN; $475,000 KEESEP) had previously won a Dec. 13 six-furlong maiden sprint at Aqueduct out of which the second- and third-place finishers both came back to win subsequent starts.
“I like the fact that it was far back to third,” Brown said, noting the 6 1/2-length margin between second-place finisher Crown the Buckeye (Yaupon) and the rest of the field. “Those races typically come back fast, figure-wise. I think the horse that was runner-up was a very stubborn foe and on the improve.”
Brown said after the Gotham that Iron Honor, who had previously shipped south to Payson Park in Florida to start the winter before coming back north for the Gotham, would now remain in New York with the Apr. 4 GII Wood Memorial Stakes as his next target.
“I don't want to ship the horse around too much,” Brown said. “I'll hedge that as bad a winter as we've had in New York, the law of averages will hopefully turn the right way here. I'll leave him with my New York base where he's done most of his training since he arrived into our system. He was there last summer at our Belmont barn training on that training track, so he's very familiar with the surface. He's 2-for-2 on the Aqueduct surface racing, so if he comes out of [the Gotham] healthy, he will train in New York and run in the Wood Memorial.”
Iron Honor | Sarah Andrew
10) CLASS PRESIDENT (c, Uncle Mo–Top Quality, by Quality Road) O-WinStar Farm, LLC, First Go Racing and CHC, Inc.; B-WinStar Farm, LLC (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $593,700. Last start: WON Mar. 1 GII Rebel Stakes.
Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Rebel Stakes on three occasions, each time with a colt making his third lifetime start who was not favored.
His other two trainees, Malagacy in 2017 and Magnum Moon in 2018, both next started in the Arkansas Derby (Malagacy was fifth and Magnum Moon won).
Class President, off his 8-1 upset in the Rebel, might be headed elsewhere though, because a higher-ranked Pletcher trainee, Renegade, has been under consideration for the Arkansas Derby for some time now.
This Uncle Mo-sired homebred pressured the pacemaker in the early stages of the Rebel, backed off a beat in the middle stages, seized the lead in upper stretch, then fought off a robust late bid from the more-seasoned runner-up, Silent Tactic, to prevail by a nose before galloping out with decent energy.
Class President broke his maiden in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Dec. 27, then was second, beaten 3 3/4 lengths, when cutting back to seven furlongs in the Swale Stakes there Jan. 31.
11) REAGAN'S HONOR (c, 3, Honor A. P.–Rutile, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-West Point Thoroughbreds, David Ingordo & Gabriel Duignan; B-David Ingordo & Jerome S Moss (KY); T-Cherie DeVaux. Sales history: $140,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: 3-2-0-0, $72,300. Last start: WON Feb. 19 Fair Grounds ALW.
When was the last time a Derby candidate beat–let alone even faced-older horses in February?
I'll have to defer to someone with a better memory and/or database than me for that answer. But there's no doubting this Honor A.P. colt uncorked a serious, look-at-me effort (96 Beyer) when splintering a 3-and-up, first-level allowance route by 6 3/4 lengths at Fair Grounds Feb. 19, one full month before his actual third birthdate.
Competing against older males wasn't the first-choice plan for Reagan's Honor. But when a race with similar conditions restricted to sophomores failed to fill at Fair Grounds the weekend before, trainer Cherie DeVaux entered this $140,000 KEESEP colt against older company, with a tradeoff being that Reagan's Honor would get between a three- and eight-pound weight break against five elders.
Jose Ortiz outbroke the field from post two, and Reagan's Honor appeared neither taxed nor pressured in laying down lively quarter-mile splits of :22.94, :23,89, :24.72 and :24.19.
The 11-10 favorite was hand-ridden by Ortiz to the top of the long Fair Grounds home straight, put under some light hustling in upper stretch, and kept to task with occasional stick work while widening his winning margin.
Reagan's Honor finished up with a last half-furlong timed in :6.28 for a final 1 1/16-miles clocking of 1:42.02, just one-hundredth of a second off the track record set by Olympiad in the GIII Mineshaft Stakes exactly four years earlier, on Feb. 19, 2022.
This colt started his career Dec. 20 in a Fair Grounds MSW sprint in which he was fourth, beaten eight lengths at 9-2 odds (69 Beyer). He won his maiden Jan. 17, wiring a 1 1/16-miles field at 7-1 odds (81 Beyer).
Reagan's Honor, a medium-framed colt, is out of a Medaglia d'Oro half-sister to 2005 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo (Holy Bull). He's being pointed for the Apr. 4 GI Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
Reagan's Honor | Hodges Photography
12) TALKIN (c, Good Magic–Rote, by Tiznow) O- Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Pine Racing Stables, Legendary Thoroughbreds, Belmar Racing and Breeding, LLC, and R. A. Hill Stable; B-Fifth Avenue Bloodstock (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $600,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $156,250. Last start: 9th Dec. 6 GII Remsen Stakes.
It's getting a bit deep into the season to be making speculative inclusions within the Top 12 for horses who have yet to start at age 3, but let's close out the column with a mention of Talkin, who is likely to be entered Wednesday for this Saturday's GIII Tampa Bay Derby.
This $600,000 KEESEP trainee from Danny Gargan's barn never fired when ninth in the Remsen Stakes going nine furlongs Dec. 6, a race whose one-two finishers now occupy the Nos. 1 and 4 spots on this list.
Talkin's eye-catching performance from his juvenile season is actually two starts back, when he was the runner-up despite lots of lateral movement and trip trouble in the GI Champagne Stakes.
In that one-turn mile at Aqueduct, Talkin contested the pace outside at the break, angled in leaving the chute, tracked behind horses, then got bumped out to the seven path. He dropped back down to the rail entering the far turn, advanced to fourth at the fence, then shifted outward again to be seven wide off the final turn. He got carried out by a tiring and drifting favorite before earning second under a mild drive behind a 6 1/2-length winner.
Talkin was entered for last Saturday's Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream, but Gargan scratched him with an eye toward Tampa, which is likely to be a softer spot.
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