The field for the GI Preakness Stakes, ranked in “likeliest winner” order.
1) JOURNALISM (c, Curlin–Mopotism, by Uncle Mo). O- Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, LaPenta, Robert V., Elayne Stables 5 LLC, Magnier, Mrs. John, Tabor, Michael B. and Smith, Derrick; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Michael W. McCarthy. Sales history: $825,000 Ylg '23 FTSAUG. Lifetime record: GISW, 6-4-1-1, $1,638,880. Last start: 2nd May 3 GI Kentucky Derby.
Favorites have lost the last six editions of the Preakness and eight of the last nine (lone exception: the 2-5 Justify in 2018). But Journalism at his 8-5 morning-line odds would be a pari-mutuel gift if you could actually get him at that price.
He figures to be bet below that value coming off a strong second-place try in the GI Kentucky Derby. Journalism's résumé of two-turn graded stakes success, proven ability to crank out triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures, and reliable far-turn torque that he sustains deep into his stretch runs rank him a cut above the competition in the second jewel of the Triple Crown.
This athletic $825,000 FTSAUG colt by Curlin was unfazed by minor crowding at the break of the Derby, and Journalism had no problem mixing it up in close quarters while asserting himself on the inside the first time under the finish wire.
Umberto Rispoli edged him off the fence and out to the three path six furlongs out, and Journalism responded by picking off midpack horses four deep down the backstretch before advancing in earnest 3 1/2 furlongs out.
He ramped up his run through the far turn, came five wide into the lane, grabbed the lead a furlong and a half from the finish, then was immediately accosted by Sovereignty (Into Mischief), before staying on well under urging.
Journalism didn't do anything to lose the Derby–he just got outrun by a better horse.
Coming off that 1 1/2-length defeat (102 Beyer), trainer Michael McCarthy has expressed confidence that Journalism's attitude and appetite indicate a “happy horse” since May 3, so it's on to Baltimore (unlike 16 other Derby starters).
Those who like to see the sport's stars race on a more frequent basis will be rooting for this colt to handle running back on just two weeks of rest, and it plays to Journalism's stalking style that there is no shortage of speed in the Preakness.
But the fact that Journalism has now had two demanding races in a row (he had to overcome a serious momentum stop before running hard through the lane in the Apr. 5 GI Santa Anita Derby), might tilt some bettors toward taking a stand against him.
2) SANDMAN (c, Tapit–Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor). O-D. J. Stable LLC, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds and CJ Stables; B-Lothenbach Stables Inc (KY); T-Mark E. Casse. Sales History: $1,200,000 2yo '24 OBSMAR. Lifetime record: GISW, 9-3-1-2, $1,254,595. Last start: 7th May 3 GI Kentucky Derby.
This deep-closing gray by Tapit was brushed, bumped and fanned wide in the sloppy-track Derby, which resulted in a no-impact seventh. For the Preakness he'll get a jockey switch to John Velazquez.
Trainer Mark Casse said this $1.2 million OBSMAR colt might benefit from a stronger rider, which makes Velazquez a good fit.
Closing from off the tailgate in a less crowded field could also work to Sandman's advantage. When entered in nine-horse fields (like the Preakness), he's won two out of his last three starts (and finished second in the other). He didn't fire his best shots in fields of 19 and 13 in the Derby and GII Rebel Stakes.
Sandman's most promising races are now four and five starts back in his past-performance block. In a Dec. 13 Oaklawn allowance over a short-stretch mile, he had a ground-saving go, then sliced through authoritatively at the fence to win by 1 3/4 lengths. In the Jan. 25 GIII Southwest Stakes, Sandman buckled at the ankle, leaped sideways at the start, but rallied from well back into the teeth of a speed-favoring track to get second, beaten only a length.
Sandman's third in the Feb. 23 GII Rebel Stakes was a best-of-the-rest try, and his win in the GI Arkansas Derby has to be viewed in the context of being accomplished by closing (erratically) into a major pace meltdown that slanted the outcome in the favor of any capable closer.
Still, with nine races of experience under his girth (seven at a mile or longer) and his late-gain running style, there shouldn't be any question about whether he has the foundation to hit the board at this level. A Preakness win, however, would require a next-level performance.
3) GOAL ORIENTED (c, Not This Time–Bizzy Caroline, by Afleet Alex) 'TDN Rising Star.' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Bashor, Dianne, Determined Stables, Masterson, Robert E., Ryan, Tom J., Waves Edge Capital LLC and Donovan, Catherine Owner; B-Runnymede Farm LLC & CWC Investment 2, LLC; T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $425,000 Ylg '23 KEESEP. Lifetime record: 2-2-0-0, $111,960. Last start: WON May 3 Churchill Downs AOC.
Non-favorites have wired the Preakness in each of the last two years, and 'TDN Rising Star' Goal Oriented (Not This Time) has drawn the rail after a front-running victory in a 1 1/16-miles allowance/optional claimer on the Derby undercard two weeks ago.
This Bob Baffert-trained colt just hit his third birthdate May 15, putting him (theoretically) behind earlier-starting his peers, development-wise. But based on untapped potential, this undefeated colt stands out.
Goal Oriented did rally from fifth as the favorite in an Apr. 6 Santa Anita maiden sprint with a big move on the turn before finishing up in hand 3 1/4 lengths clear in a race that yielded three other next-out winners. So he's not strictly one-dimensional speed, but the rail draw for the Preakness makes it likely he'll once again be sent for the lead.
This $425,000 KEESEP colt has paired 91 Beyers in his only two starts. Based on the Preakness's published Beyer par of 101, he faces a tall task in terms of a numbers upgrade while stretching out in distance.
But that type of leap is not out of the question. Last year's Preakness upsetter, Seize the Grey, upped his best lifetime Beyer from 88 to 100 when scoring in Baltimore after also winning at Churchill on the Derby undercard.
Goal Oriented's maternal grandsire is the 2005 Triple Crown closer Afleet Alex, who ran third in the Derby and won both the Preakness (with a 112 Beyer) and GI Belmont Stakes.
Goal Oriented | Coady Media
4) RIVER THAMES (c, Maclean's Music–Proportionality, by Discreet Cat) 'TDN Rising Star'. O- WinStar Farm LLC, CHC, Inc., Pantofel Stable LLC and Wachtel Stable; B-CTR Stables, LLC (NY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $200,000 Ylg '23 SARAUG. Lifetime record: GSP, 4-2-1-1, $261,900. Last start: 3rd Apr. 8 GI Blue Grass Stakes.
'TDN Rising Star' River Thames orchestrated a no-excuse stalking trip in the GI Blue Grass Stakes, but came up punchless in deep stretch, managing third. The two horses who finished ahead of him (plus two others who finished farther back) all ended up being also-rans in the Derby.
After starting his career with two wins over the winter at Gulfstream, the race that stands out for this New York-bred ($200,000 SARAUG) by Maclean's Music was his second, beaten only a neck, by eventual Derby winner Sovereignty in the GII Fountain of Youth Stakes.
River Thames pressed the pace on the inside through the first turn, then got backed off from the action and was switched outside. Roused to re-engage with three furlongs left, he took control off the final turn and shook free, but a momentary lapse of concentration contributed to him getting nailed by Sovereignty in the shadow of the wire.
Opting out of the Derby (despite qualifying) might end up looking like a sharp move by trainer Todd Pletcher, who has put three half-mile breezes into River Thames since the Blue Grass. The Preakness does not boast the depth (or the potential chaos) of the Derby field.
5) AMERICAN PROMISE (c, Justify–Tapella, by Tapit). O-BC Stables LLC; B-Candy Meadows LLC (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Sales history: $750,000 Ylg '23 KEESEP. Lifetime record: SW, 10-2-1-1, $444,874. Last start: 16th May 3 GI Kentucky Derby.
American Promise, a $750,000 KEESEP colt by Justify, will be the 49th Preakness starter for Hall-of-Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, a record for the race.
The 89-year-old Lukas has won the middle leg of the Triple Crown seven times. His two 21st Century winners were front-running upsetters (Seize the Grey at 9-1 in 2024 and Oxbow at 15-1 in 2013).
This May 1 foal had minor trip trouble after the start in the Derby, but none of it overtly contributed to his 16th-place finish, 38 1/2 lengths behind the winner.
In fact, the five most logical speed horses on paper all more or less managed to come out of the gate without incident in the Derby. American Promise reached a contending position between the two dueling leaders by the end of the back straight, but couldn't deal with pace pressure beyond the 3 1/2-furlong pole.
This colt earned a 95 Beyer in both his lone stakes win at Colonial in the Virginia Derby (a one-turn configuration for nine-furlongs) and in his muddy, 1 1/16-miles maiden win at Oaklawn.
Even though American Promise didn't run well over the sloppy/sealed surface in the 19-horse Derby, that previous decent try on a wet track is worth noting in case Saturday comes up wet at Pimlico.
6) HEART OF HONOR (GB) (c, Honor A. P.–Ruby Love (Chi), by Scat Daddy) O-Jim & Claire Ltd; B-David Redvers Bloodstock (GB); T-Jamie Osborne. Sales history: 35,000gns Wlg '22 TATNOV; €42,000 Ylg '23 GOFSEP; €160,000 2yo '24 ARQMAY. Lifetime record: GSP-UAE, 6-2-4-0, $340,919. Last start: 2nd Apr. 5 G2 UAE Derby.
Heart of Honor (GB) won a pair of one-mile dirt allowance races at Meydan earlier this year after debuting with a second-place finish in England at Southwell (England) on an all-weather surface. He was then second in three Dubai stakes: The UAE 2,000 Guineas, the Al Bastakiya Stakes, and the G2 UAE Derby, in which he was beaten by only a nose.
Trainer Jamie Osborne opted not to ship stateside for the Kentucky Derby despite having the qualifying points to do so, and he initially thought this Honor A.P. colt (35,000gns TATNOV, €42,000 GOFSEP, €160,000 ARQMAY) might need a break.
But by mid-April, the former jumps jockey decided this “hardy kind of horse” was “thriving,” so “we thought [the Preakness] was worth a shot.”
Osborne continued: “We're going to have a go, and if he runs okay in the Preakness, the aim is to hang on for another three weeks and go to Saratoga” for the Belmont Stakes.
Heart of Honor was equipped with blinkers for the first time in the UAE Derby after striking Osborne as being “a little bit lazy [by] getting a little bit too far behind and staying on a bit too late.”
Jamie Osborne's daughter, the 23-year-old Saffie Osborne, who made history at Meydan last year as the first woman jockey to win at the Dubai track, retains the mount for the Preakness. It will be her first ride in America.
7) CLEVER AGAIN (c, American Pharoah–Flattering {Ire}), by Galileo {Ire}). O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor and Derrick Smith; B-Orpendale/Chelston/Wynatt (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 Ylg '23 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-1-0, $198,400. Last start: WON Mar. 30 Hot Springs Stakes.
Clever Again (American Pharoah) comes off a seven-week break since a 101-Beyer wiring of the Hot Springs Stakes. Four horses have since run back out of that $200,000 stakes, with two hitting the board and one managing a win (85 Beyer in a $175,000 sprint stakes at Oaklawn).
This $500,000 KEESEP colt debuted in April of his 2-year-old season with a second-place try over 4 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland.
After a 10-month gap, Clever Again wired a 1 1/16-mile Feb. 23 maiden at Oaklawn as the 2-1 favorite. Other next-out horses from that race have gone 0-for-5.
Trainer Steve Asmussen expects Clever Again to come out firing on Saturday, contributing to what projects to be a lively Preakness pace.
“We expect him to break clean, with the other pace obviously to his inside,” Asmussen said after the Preakness post draw.
Clever Again is untested on a wet track, and the female side of his pedigree tilts toward grass success.
8) PAY BILLY (c, Improbable–Harlan's Rose, by Harlington). O-RKTN Racing, LLC; B-WinStar Farm, LLC (KY); T-Michael E. Gorham. Sales history: $38,000 Ylg, '23 FTKOCT; $60,000 2yo '24 OBSAPR. Race record: SW, 8-4-11, $234,475. Last start: WON Apr. 19 Federico Tesio Stakes.
Pay Billy (Improbable) earned an automatic, paid berth into the Preakness by winning the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel last month.
Trainer Mike Gorham has described this colt ($38,000 FTKOCT, $60,000 OBSAPR) as a “big, strong horse” who is getting better thanks to a relaxed attitude.
The 85 Beyer in the Tesio was a lifetime best for Pay Billy. He closed from fourth while outside as the 2.3-1 favorite. It's worth noting that he had his heels clipped from behind in the first-turn scramble, and emerged with a cut on his left rear hock that has since healed.
“A couple of jockeys tried to get position,” jockey Raul Mena said. “I didn't want to be on the lead, so I put my horse in the clearest path and got out of the trouble.”
The second choice in the Tesio, Kentucky Outlaw (Outwork), also had trouble on the turn and came out of that race to win the Long Branch Stakes as the 9-5 favorite last Saturday at Monmouth Park.
9) GOSGER (c, Nyquist–Gloria S, by Tapit). O/B-Harvey A. Clarke Racing Stable, LLC (KY); T-Brendan P. Walsh. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $292,200. Last start: WON Apr. 12 GIII Lexington Stakes.
Gosger (Nyquist) broke his maiden with an 88 Beyer in his second lifetime start, a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Feb. 15 as the 19-10 favorite.
He then returned two months later to win the GIII Lexington Stakes with an 87 Beyer at 4-1 odds.
In that Keeneland stakes, this homebred colt from the racing stable of the late Harvey Clarke got second run at a softened-up 25-1 leader over the track's short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles.
Gosger has tactical versatility and a pace-pressing ability that could help him work out a reasonable trip from post nine in the Preakness.
New jockey Luis Saez has a 15-for-77 (19%) win mark and a 48% in-the-money record when teaming with trainer Brendan Walsh over the last five years.
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